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steo (short-term energy outlook)

The U.S. refinery fleet has run at higher-than-normal rates this year, with refinery utilization averaging more than 95% of capacity between May and September, the highest for those months since 1998. Tight global product supplies this year have boosted margins for petroleum products, particularly for diesel, incentivizing the increased run rates.

Since 1991, U.S. refinery utilization has averaged 92% from May to September, compared with 88% across the other seven months.

U.S. refineries tend to run at their highest rates between May and September to boost supply of gasoline for the peak demand season in the summer months. Distillate demand, by contrast, peaks in the fall and winter. Because refineries produce a combination of gasoline and distillates, high summer refinery utilization usually leads to an increase in distillate inventories before seasonal refinery maintenance and the peak distillate demand season.

This year the refinery runs were driven largely by tight global supplies for distillate fuel oil, leading to high international demand for U.S. distillate fuel oil exports.

While refinery utilization was the highest since 1998, total U.S. refinery output was only the highest since 2019 because refining capacity has decreased by 4% since then.

In the first 3 weeks of October, U.S. refinery utilization decreased from its summer highs but remained above the five-year (2021–2025) seasonal average.

Principal contributor: Jimmy Troderman

Tags: refineries, consumption/demand

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