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steo (short-term energy outlook)

After decades of decline, crude oil production in Alaska is growing, driven by two projects on Alaska’s North Slope. In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we expect a 23,000 barrels per day (b/d) (6%) increase in 2026, followed by a 60,000 b/d (13%) rise in 2027. At a forecast 505,000 b/d in 2027, output would be the most since 2014.

If realized, these annual production increases will be the largest since the 1980s, when Alaskan crude production peaked at 2.0 million b/d.

The recent growth is attributable to two projects on Alaska's North Slope:

The Nuna project, owned by ConocoPhillips, started production in December 2024 and is expected to produce 20,000 b/d at its peak. So far this year, it has produced an average of 10,000 b/d, partially offsetting existing production declines.

The Pikka Phase 1 project, jointly owned by Santos and Repsol, began production in May 2026 with initial average monthly production of 2,000 b/d and reaching 38,000 b/d as of September 2026, according to data from the Alaska Oil & Gas Conservation Commission. We expect peak production of 80,000 b/d by winter 2026–27, nearly 20% of total Alaskan production in 2025.

Notably, our STEO production data indicate that third-quarter 2026 production grew 4% as Pikka Phase 1 came online, marking the first third-quarter production increase in more than 40 years. Alaskan crude output typically dips in late summer when operators conduct annual maintenance, running an average of 7% lower than first-quarter levels over the previous five years (2021–2025).

Principal contributor: Trinity Manning-Pickett

Tags: Alaska, crude oil, production/supply, STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook)

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